Which is 28 October 2026! Having studied England’s broken housing supply system in detail for many years, following a professional career in property which began in the 1960’s, I think I am convinced there is a nearly unique opportunity facing the Prime Minister and his Chancellor of the Exchequer next Wednesday. The opportunity is to break the housing supply impasse. Acting decisively, and included in the Labour Party general election manifesto for endorsement by the electorate, the announcement will place opposition parties which do not support the government in citadels of financial privilege; and will defenestrate nimby lobbies who do not support spatial change which has local civic support.
Lack of funding for site purchase will not be the barrier many will fear. Funding become self-generating as the business sentiment understands that in one concise change the Chancellor has grabbed back an asset for the nation which is in very short supply, ie. building land. . By acting, he erases the two barriers to building: one by writing off billions of phoney land and site values assets that stop owners building-out the sites they own because these historic land costs they paid mean schemes are not viable. And two, change of ownership of these building sites and development land gives back local councils control of where and when building in their areas land use change will happen, and provides them with the funding to ensure infrastructure support is in then place.
If during his Budget Speech he is prepared this make a radical announcement about nationalisation of the ownership of building land, which takes immediate regulatory effect and locks into development land building site values prevailing on Budget Day morning, (or maybe the day before to neutralise the risk of leaks) the market reaction will be massive. Horrified anger will be replaced by measured and focused reactions. For example if he includes a short transition period before all sites and development land become subject to compulsory purchase at values on Budget Day, the pressure on land and site owners to build out to beat the selected deadline date will be immense, to minimise future losses. Land owners who say their land is being confiscated at below market value will be wrong. It will be purchased at full market value including development value, ie. hope value, in place on Budget Day. If there is any? They will also have use of the transition window, during which they can build out their schemes if this is a less painful exit.
With good reason land owners, land speculators, land estates and strategic land specialists and option holders will all feel aggrieved. But a whole generation cannot afford to buy. The open market system does not apply to build land. It is rationed by myopic councils. The result, for more than a generation land owners have enjoyed the winnings of an enormous land lottery game, otherwise known as the call for sites system. It is a shameful council alibi for spatial planning. Which is nonsense. It is not. Professional consultants who have also made money from the existing broken system will quickly see the new opportunities for long term sustainable planning policies that will replace the opportunist incentives that haphazard owners have enjoyed under the existing CFS method of chosing where, and where not to build.They will be fine, if they are shrewd.
My blogs dated October 3, 2026 ( Budget for a good recovery: a spatial policy) and October 9, 2026 (Hurrah! Buy the land now) and the conclusions given there are reinforced by another interesting story in Housing Today, by Daniel Gayne, October 21, 2026. He reports the decision of Land Securities to de-prioritise its plans for a 2800 home scheme in Lewisham. Land Securities, according to the report, attributes the decision to ‘exceptionally challenging economic conditions ………higher interest rates, increased construction costs, and more complex regulations’. It is reasonable to assume that if Land Securities puts this site on open market for sale (there is no hint they will) the value of it for rebuilding will be low or even zero. Hope value/development value/betterment, call it what you prefer is possibly, after a wind-cock on a church spire the most unstable measure of value, or direction of wind I know. So, buy now local council, when site values and land values are perhaps at all time lows. For sure they will go back up, just as fast as they fall, one day, but who knows when Ask President Trump when he will end hostilities in the Gulf, in Ukraine and return oil and gas supplies to normal levels and you may have a good clue when by building confidence will return in England. The joy is that the UK government, if it wishes, can anticipate this change in sentiment and in doing so restart economic growth in advance.
Ian Campbell
21 October 2026
