Sad but it seems Rushi Sunak is another muddled PM. He too is committed to making home ownership a reality for a new generation , and encouragingly states we must build the homes in the right places where people want to live and work. This is good stuff. He wants the decisions taken locally. Quite right too.
What he ignores is that after decades of local housing policy failure simply exhorting local councils to build more houses will, once again fail. If the means, the motivations and the leadership are not delivered by government it is madness to simply keep repeating the same message to an audience which has a totally different agenda: no change in my back yard.
The PM does not get it. His four predecessors, Cameron, May, Johnson and Truss did not get it. Nor did Blair or Brown get it before 2010.
At least we now know the necessary re-ordering of the broken land supply system will not happen before the next general election. Unaffordable house prices will remain unaffordable. If the recession ends, house price inflation will resume. The recession might offer a few illusionists the expectation that house prices will fall. Don’t put your money on this bet if your interest is on the locations where growth pressures are embedded. Low demand areas will see a period of flat price growth whilst the recession rages; medium demand areas will see renewed house inflation once sentiment picks up; and popular areas will see prices roar ahead once again first when normal sentiment returns.
Are these predictions nonsense? After all we have a renewed commitment to levelling up, being led by a minister who has a track record showing a willingness to do what us necessary. To do so what is necessary with the broken housing market Michael Gove must convince his boss historic changes of direction cannot be avoided. Local councils must take back control of their local spatial policies; must accept full responsibility for the future supply of housing land in their area; must take ownership of the next generation of housing land and above all teach local councils what leadership will mean in the decades ahead. Teach them to stop saying no. Teach them how to saying yes can be an opportunity, not a nightmare.
The wins are self-funding; tenure balance is directed by councils through land control; and near 100% land value capture. With these council controls it may be possible to make levelling up a long term reality, not simply a empty tabloid headline.
Ian Campbell
11 November 2022
