A one party housing solution will not work. A 5 year, one parliament housing solution will not work. Landowners must become allies, not opponents. Councils must act like investors, looking generations ahead. They are custodians of the future.
Unlike many online housing commentators, buoyed up by Angela Rayner’s, Deputy PM announcements published on Tuesday (30 July 2024) explaining the new government’s plan to build more homes by increasing council housing targets my reaction is different. It is one of disappointment and mourning. Let me be clear. I have read once more her pronouncements. Her aspirations and her hopes I vigorously support. For lots of new homes where needed, for the local and national infrastructure needed, to re-ignite economic growth. Perhaps above all to make homes affordable. But to repeat. Spatial policies must be decided first. Tenure and affordability issues are second. Reverse the order and chaos will happen.
The political stakes for change are high. Sir Keir Starmer has made that plain, according to The Times Political Editor, Steven Swinford and Chief Political Correspondent, Aubrey Allegretti, ‘ After victory, the rout: Keir Starmer aims to destroy the Tories for Good’ (3rd August 2024. It seems Ministers have been told by the PM that if they succeed in delivering there should be no limit to their ambitions, in particular to present solutions that show Labour can fix the the foundations and by doing so, build a better future. I buy the sentiment. I too dream the dream. Almost I join the faithful. But the solo solution proposed has flaws. Bad flaws. They will be fatal. Is there is a remedy?
The good news is………at least Labour are trying. Showing honest intent. Unlike the Tories, whose lack of policy integrity, particularly locally over very many years is unfortunate conduct. But the unpalatable fact remains for Labour’s new Ministers. Tory re-education and redemption must come. Their conversion is part of the future housing solution. Policy alignment must start in Westminster and quickly be skewed locally. Tory policy re-alignment is needed to stop the land market freezing up. The hibernation threat will grow. It is remains the case that Labour cannot deliver on these worthy intentions within one parliament, nor can it deliver its promises without cross-party support on a multiple-Parliament timescale. A five year spatial plan is only realistic if it is the beginning of a generational spatial plan.
After much hesitation it is now clear Angela Rayner’s view of reality in the world of property: actually the dynamic power driven forces of the world of property and mine are different. She believes government policy announcements followed by legislation will be sufficient to change sentiment within the land owning market. Or she believes she can ride rough-shod over these vested interests. Based on nearly sixty years open market experience I do not. Please do not get me wrong. I do not expect landowners, option holders, developers and builders to have a plan to break the law. And all their experienced, well paid professional advisers will bluntly say what they can and cannot do when the small print is studied in detail. What they will do after taking advice can be summed up in a word: nothing. Put differently they will go into hibernation. They will wait until they believe these new policies will be reversed. Which is why, to shift market sentiment Labour also need declarations of policy support for their spatial and house building aspirations from the Conservatives and Liberal Democrat’s too. (And two, local support, on which please bear with me a stretch more).
Without such cross-party cooperation some progress will be made, but it will far slower than need be, with designs and public realm built to the lowest common denominator. This outcome will once again prove to the public the planning system cannot be trusted. Is failure on this scale good enough? …..My fear is the frustrations that the happy visions co-operation could produce but will not, actually produces instead ugly ducklings, so sad Angela will learn the lesson. You can try and buck the market, but without the right timeframe and the right allies you cannot.My frustration will be shared by her in 2029. By then I will be diehard, grumpy old man fast approaching my nineties, and she will be at her prime. The pain of failure will be even greater for her.
Or am I off my rocker? At my age some will wonder. So I have looked with care at the twenty plus Stakeholders she lists as there is a lot of expertise amongst them. Do they have the answer? Where are the long term investors. Where are the landed estates who have not created premium values over five years but have done so over five generations. Where are the place makers who can be proud to show their achievements? Where are councils whose civic pride at their achievements bursts forth? Instead we have group representatives who will be looking over their shoulders at members ; there are traders who come into a location and leave again a few years later. Have any changed the spatial landscape of their area, and by doing so won lasting acclamation and endorsement? Maybe? I’d like to know. I am unsure and hope they know better?
Above all Angela Rayner needs to talk to, and listen to the investors. The sovereign funds, the superannuation funds, the banks. Who look and plan generations head. Learn from their experiences and from their aspirations. Ignore the view of traders who come and go. They see and opportunity and grab it and then run. Which is fair enough. It is their role. But their advice has little of value for councils who want to look far ahead, The conclusion will be that councils must act like investors, not like traders. Their whole mind-set will alter. But it also means a new attitude towards time will kick-in. It will take time to identify long term growth locations which will in valuation terms compete with their best and most popular areas locally. Canny councils will be using their new skills and civic aspirations to be the best to buy in the key sites long before hope value has descended.
is this sort of thinking what their local residents want? Medium and high density urban locations to compare with the best that inner London, or compact rural hill towns in Tuscany offer they can have too. Go and have a look at these dreams and then tell the local residents. Thinking and acting on these lines make my gloom go away. But how to sell this mindset to councillors and residents? It comes next. What do you say Angela and Matthew? Here is change that will work, but it needs time and political alignment for years ahead. Can you deliver this future dream? Or is this scale of change simply too much?
Above (1) sent prematurely, but now amended, for which I apologise. A revised completed edition (2) will follow which will examines the lack of policy to win local support for spatial change and how this can be addressed. If necessary please turn back to Housing Manifesto 2024 blog published 29 April 2024.
Ian Campbell
3 August 2024
