On 28 September 2025 the MHCLG published the government’s Initial government response-September 2025 setting out their thoughts and first reactions to the New Town Taskforce’s recommendations, and policy on planning, land acquisition and next steps. If we compare this step with the total abdication of spatial leadership by the previous government over 14 years , the Taskforce’s progress and government’s aspirations in response, massive steps are now being made. Unless of course they U-turn. Let us hope not. The opposition parties have leverage here, and the big unknown is how the Conservatives will react to the Taskforce recommendations.
Labour government aspirations are set out in their introduction to the Initial government response,which, if they actually happen will transform housing delivery. But there are big omissions and worrying pitfalls which are overlooked. So it is still not clear if Ministers understand the how the market works and their scope to change it. It is time to face some spatial realities and steps needed to deliver exemplary outcomes. The government response says they want exemplary development to be the norm – learn the lessons from the past- identify prime opportunities- unlock economic growth- transforming the way that large settlements are delivered- delivery should be through the development corporation model – to reassure local leaders – support the relevant new town delivery bodies to acquire land- not include any land value generated by the new town scheme- ensure that landowners receive a fair return.
The government wants to learn from the past. It wants to unlock economic growth. And it wants to transform the way large settlements are delivered. They are moving, and they are doing so in the right direction, but their target is still not in focus.
I spent most of my professional life, starting in the sixties unlocking economic growth in an overheated, and poorly planned region: the Thames Valley. Learning from the challenges of success, but first starting with two grey towns (compare Reading and Slough with the topical sex appeal of Oxford and Cambridge); add the power of aviation growth ( little Heathrow in 1960-20 minutes away, and even littler Gatwick-1+ hours); the heritage of intellectual knowledge from WW2 defence establishments (completely unforeseen); the power of two fast transport links- the M4 into inner London and lots of good, often fast trains, some also into inner London (Paddington); and finally lots of quintessential English villages, many preserved in aspic (actually called the green belt) for the entrepreneurs families.What luck I had to research and write a report in April 1968 for my employers, Wates Ltd, Survey of the Future Growth Areas of the South East. The findings I predicted followed. Personally the future was also obvious, a commercially sound decision to become an agent of change by starting a consultancy in heart of this high growth potential area, choosing a spot in the centre of Reading, a short walk from the station and short drive onto the motorway. Amazing but outside central London this new species called commercial estate agents did not exist in those days. All these changes were topped up by later market reports on the commercial opportunities produced for employers and developers, leading eventually to a realisation that new offices, new factories, and lots of new staff moving into the area also needed lots of new homes. This penny dropped, but not until the mid-1980’s, resulting in (February 1990) in publication of Growth v Quality of Life, A Thames Valley solution . It too proved prescient. The problem: residents liked the jobs arriving but did not want the homes too! Nimbyism took root the Thames Valley fifty years ago.
So here are my personal, experience based spatial and delivery market driven recommendations, to compare to those of the Taskforce. They echo the government’s hopes and aspirations. Unlike the government’s plans,IMO all these policies will deliver.
They cannot be started for five to ten years, and will need two generations to complete. But they will return home prices and rents to affordable levels; they will be welcomed locally by the silent majority; they will -eventually be liked and popular in all local areas. The guiding principle in my recommendations will be the market, not fear of local resistance to local change. As a London resident who has lived, worked and studied in Berkshire, Surrey and London for nearly six decades, my work/life balance will play some part. And finally and importantly guided by the market, I make recommendations based on the creation or lack of creation of premium values. Creation of premium values is a measure of popular appeal and its absence is a measure of failure.
1. LOCATIONS OF NEW TOWNS. Order of priorities. London and the South East come first. It is the number one economic driver. . This is where house buying to salaries ratios are at their worst. Starting in 2035 all London borough’s directly or through the Mayor of London are required to identify and register a maximum of 2/4 sites for major at scale house building to absorb all their housing needs from 2035-2084. All owners of land or buildings in these defined and registered areas will be entitled to sell their legal interest during this period at open market value prevailing at the date of registration. The same will apply to neighbours who suffer blight. For example, in the London Borough of Richmond upon Thames, one of the designated sites will be the airspace above Richmond station.
- 2. OUTSIDE LONDON, within the South East. At there will be at least four new town sites around London.. Probably locations will be selected solely to preserve all areas of AONB. Likely choices will be EAST: Ashford/Maidstone/Sevenoaks; SOUTH:Crawley/Reigate and also due to acute shortages Guildford/ Farnham; WEST; Reading/Basingstoke avoiding AWE protection zone; NORTH: Cambridge/Milton Keynes/Bicester.
3. OUTSIDE SOUTH EAST. Consult leading locally based commercial agents and surveyors to identify maximum employer demand locations. Locations to be selected over ten year cycle on basis of employer demand for space.
4. DELIVERY VEHICLE . Follow Taskforce recommendations.
5. NATIONAL LAND SERVICE REGISTRATION PERIOD.. To be completed, approved and binding by end of 2035.
6. LAND RELEASE PROGRAMME 2025 – 2035. Based on existing local plan spatial decisions. After 2035 all spatial policies in local plans to be superseded by the National Land Service approved, official sites register.
7. LAND PRICE PURCHASE POLICY. Until the end of 2035 all land purchased for development by local councils or new town development corporations will be purchased at a price which matches open market value prevailing six months before official announcement and will include a 10% premium payment called the equity bonus.
8. PREMIUM VALUES. Number one commercial marker to decide design, location and accessibility decisions.
9. PRIVATE CARS. No private cars to be included in neighbour areas. Private car ownership to be subject to an annual charge. Private car parking in common areas subject to a daily parking fee.
10. CONNECTIVITY & PUBLIC TRANSPORT OPTIONS. Within the new urban area and connections beyond new public transport solutions to be completed on an agreed schedule.
11. DESIGN PRINCIPLES. Development corporations to appoint master planners without delay. Their selection will be based on inviting each to explain how their proposal for spatial distribution of long term housing will be allocated to maximise long term values; include recommendations for sites worthy of registration; suggestion of a land resales programme; thinking behind their spatial distribution timetable and recommendations for connections outside.
Above all the government wants to re-start economic growth. A credible commitment to start the above building programme will give the kickstart needed. Owners, and controllers of potential building land identified through the ‘ call for sites’ system of spatial housing distribution, are veterans of opposition to local land use change unless they are the spatial beneficiaries. Most sites on which the current cycle of local plans rely are in the control of trader builders and trader. developers. Their legitimate commercial interest is, unlike investor builders and landowners, in the main limited to the short term. Provided there is a cross-party consensus locally about the location of long term housing, these short term housing sites will soon be brought forward on an accelerated timetable, as the prospect of lots of new, exemplary housing emerges in the horizon. It is therefore absolutely essential to achieve a high level of policy alignment amongst all political parties to make this happen. I suggest this is the focus and where the government must now direct its first attention. Without credible political consensus, stasis will continue as existing land owners and site controllers hibernate until there is a spatial policy U-turn by 2029. They know how this game is played. But do the government?
Ian Campbell
29 September 2025
OBSERVATION. These 11 policy pointers are broad-brush. They indicate the direction of travel, the time frame, the two step solution and the need for political consensus. I have ignored the detail. Some of which is covered in earlier blogs. It is worth stressing one overlooked bit of human psychology which matters in the property market far more than most other areas of economic activity. Delivery of a new home takes years. So attitudes today will change tomorrow . There is an unusually high level of uncertainty of sentiment at this time. Will it be different in three, five or ten years time? Historic experience says yes. So decisions by all concerned in buying, selling and building new homes are not made on the basis of facts. They are made on the basis of their perceptions of what the facts will be some years ahead. This long gestation period also provides others, including governments and local authorities a window in time to change expectations. What happened in the recent past matters, but only to a limited degree. What the majority of the silent majority believe will happen in the future can be surprisingly self-fulfilling. Some say it takes a decade to change national perspectives. With housing IMO this change is a certainty. The skill is deciding how far these changes will go, when they take shape and which of the possible outcomes will emerge. Those with the capacity to make and follow long term strategies have a special advantage in the world of real estate.
