A very good re-start of strategic thinking by the Conservatives; their first attempt since 2011. How will local support be achieved? The weakness? Where is the spatial growth thinking on which it relies?
It is the first good news about the housing crisis from the Conservatives for a very long time. Harry Yorke , Deputy Political editor of the Sunday Times (9 July 2023, Sunday Times) says the Department for Levelling Up and Communities minister Michael Gove will say, but for now is keeping tight lips, that he has a plan. It is to turn Cambridge into, his source says, the Silicon Valley of Europe, by adding 250,000 new homes, new rail, bus and tram lines all in the next twenty years using, but this is unclear local councils and a new generation of development corporations.
This sort of strategic thinking is welcome. More than that, it is fundamental. It the first evidence since PM David Cameron abolished strategic planning in 2011 that the Conservative party understands its approach to housing supply and strategic growth has caused economic harm, and resulted in widespread spatial failure. Ok, leave aside the negatives! It is a significant change of direction. Hurrah I am tempted to shout. At last a return to the real world from the make believe world of Alice in Wonderland led planning policy since 2010.
But I cannot cheer. Certainly not yet. . It is a start, like the Labour Party, Michael Gove has not thought it through. What has seventies years of post war economics growth proved? Sticking labels on locations does not alter the economic reality. If Cambridge was able to become Britain’s Silicon Valley through market based demand why has it taken so long since WW2 to get started? In the meantime the Thames Valley led, by unloved often overlooked but superbly well connected and located Reading, has surged ahead. Compare getting into London or Heathrow from Cambridge with the Reading travel option; compare the rural village based lifestyle for Thames Valley executives, and you see why it was Reading, once the Labour Party took over control all those decades ago, which captured the new growth. In 2001 Cisco leased a million square feet. Where did they choose?
There are other big questions. What about delivery? What about the reaction of local residents who see nothing in it for them? Don’t get me wrong. I fully support the principle of major growth around Cambridge and along the so called Arc to Oxford.The Arc contains lots of unprotected land suited to new communities and if well connected into London, into the air travel hubs and back to England’s only market led growth valley, the Thames Valley, then there is a real potential for Cambridge to be part of England’s future premier growth zone.
Strategic planning demands strategic thinking which is built on solid market evidence.it is not yet apparent if Mr Gove understands this is so. The brutal reality is to solve England’s housing crisis we need 250,000-300,000 every year. One major city expansion of 250,000 new homes around Cambridge is fine.Where will the other 19 dollops of 250,000 new homes go each year until 2043? Will the local residents be supportive? Being very honest, how will their support be obtained?it will take years. But regional planning can only be delivered if there is local trust.
Rapid out of area connectivity is one key. Economic travel zones is another key. Has Michael Gove commissioned a south east England two generation study into the options and costs of super fast rail connectivity, so all the new residents can travel without the necessity to own a car?, If not why not? This is what strategic travel thinking demands.. Has Michael Gove commissioned a spatial study of the post war market led growth zones, to predict where future growth will happen spontaneously? His party believes in the market. So do I. Without this, you cannot decide whether Government intervention into spatial options will do harm or being a help! Has Michael Gove studied the successes of the landed estates, like the Crown Estate? If not, why not? They successfully mix market led demand with spatial opportunity.
Michael Gove, it a good start. Indeed a very good start.But you know local residents will not support your plans. Labour too are looking for spatial and economic answers. Is it not time for all three main political parties to draft an English economic and spatial growth plan for 2083?
Ian Campbell
9 July 2023
