Let us assume Rishi Sunak, the PM and Michael Gove, his Secretary of State for housing sincerely want to solve the housing supply shortfall. And let us assume they want to accomodate the onslaught Theresa Villiers and her 50 strong band of backbench rebels threaten. There may be a way which was not mentioned in the earlier Housing deficit, Tory pain below. But with it there is novelty risk and a financial penalty.
By far the biggest housing shortage outside London is in the south east, particularly in the Home Counties closest to London. These are the dormitories, the commuter suburbs whose residents support London’s employers and explain the City of London’s extraordinary outreach capacity in the financial world.
It is in these areas new homes are in the greatest need. Working out their spatial policy is not difficult. Serplan did it in 1990 (Shaping the South East Planning Strategy, Consultation Paper, April 1990). Personally I researched and wrote an earlier version of this spatial strategic approach in 1968 (Survey of the Future Growth Areas of the South East, April 1968) for my employer.
Unfortunately there is a weakness.A site led approach will boost the value of the land which is identified. Perhaps it will not be by a lot. As the timeframes and other uncertainties will remain until a credible policy has emerged and is adopted by the local councils who are involved the land value boost will be small. For example will some form of overspill and hosting payment policy may also be agreed and priced into the land value?
Here is the basic procedure.
MAP 1: identifies the no-go areas subject to statutory land protection policies. They remain fully protected,
MAP 2: identifies the existing and planned infrastructure and long term potential for enhancement.
MAP 3: identifies the travel to work catchment areas of the employment growth centres assuming private cars are banned in, or penalised in the new urban areas.
Applying these basic selectors will automatically provide a draft spatial masterplan for the south east region and show where the new residential urban centres can be located. These four illustrate the possibility.
A. L1 (ie. London 1). Located on the HS2 corridor at the junction with the Arc, linking Cambridge, Milton Keynes and Oxford.
B. L2 (London 2). Elizabeth Line, east terminus. Within the nearest unprotected areas at Abbey Wood.
C. L3 (London 3). Located on the HS1 corridor and within a travel catchment zone that includes Calais.
D. L4. (London 4). Elizabeth Line west terminus in Reading. As the large areas of unprotected land land lie south west of Reading station a suitably fast link with the new Green Park station on the Reading/Basingstoke line and another on the Reading/South west line will be ended. These can be connected to an M4 Reading parkway.
These four major new residential urban centres, of varying sizes and delivery time scales will each be connected by a new rapid circulatory train, using magnetic levitation super fast technology to link them, possibly with direct links into Gatwick, Stansted and Luton airports, to be constructed in 20/40 years time.
In return for their support for this regional strategic approach, local councils own housing targets will be substantially reduced, or in some areas eliminated, reduced to wind fall sites alone. Councils with significant overspill projections to 2085 maybe expected to make financial contributions to neighbouring host councils as they and their residents will receive the biggest gains.
Ian Campbell
26 November 2022
